As 2025 comes to a close, here are some key numbers for your consideration.
Over the past 16 years, the investment asset category delivering the highest total return has been US large-cap common stocks, averaging 15% per year, which is a significantly higher rate than the long-term average of the S&P 500. The excess return is driven primarily by the growth of the “magnificent 7” companies. By contrast, a reasonable estimate of the not-so-magnificent 493 (S&P 500 excluding the magnificent 7) over the past 16 years is 10%.
The investment category providing the lowest growth rate during this generally low-inflation period is commodities.
A 60/40 balanced allocation delivered an annualized growth rate in the middle, as would be expected.
Another interesting view of the category growth rates is to fix the returns around one asset class, as shown below.
Presented below are important numbers for calendar year 2026.
And some additional important numbers in 2026.
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